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Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $29.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $403.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
24.5¢
9z
75.5¢
Natus Vincere
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$252.4K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 61%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $35.6K net·2 wallets·$35.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$63.0K@ 70¢·juice-fruit

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Natus Vincere SETUP
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $55.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$55.6K
6h
−$85.6K
tracked
$252.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $35.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 63

Since latest large flow: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "9z" if 9z win the match against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against 9z.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between 9z and Natus Vincere in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "9z" if 9z win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against 9z. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 5, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 17m ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 70.0¢3m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY 9z@ 31.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 9z; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $55.6K
6hNatus Vincere · $85.6K
24hNatus Vincere · $86.7K

9z price VWAP

Volume-weighted 9z price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary 9z probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current24.5¢
VWAP 24h30.2¢▼ below by 5.7pp
VWAP 7d30.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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9z price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$233.9K
25¢
$18.5K
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$63.0K@ 70.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—6 minutes ago
BUY9z$14.2K@ 31.0¢
ifpl0x9368…80a3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$30.0K@ 70.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUY9z$40.0K@ 31.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruitNatus Vincere$63.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·2 fills
Lakersfan1119z$51.3K
BUY VWAP 30.8¢·3 fills
0x29b5…cc6cNatus Vincere$34.0K
BUY VWAP 70.1¢·9 fills
0xf559…f462Natus Vincere$30.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill
TrippleEXNatus Vincere$14.3K
BUY VWAP 71.6¢·2 fills
ifpl9z$14.2K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·1 fill
CORGI89z$12.7K
BUY VWAP 30.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.