Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?

● quote 46s ago

Crypto→PricesCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $40.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.2KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit October 5-11?

16.5¢

YES

83.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:25 trades$19.7K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 26s ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.0K net·3 wallets·$4.2K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$6.5K@ 75¢·beheo123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP

What the tape says

YES pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

+$1.4K

+$955

tracked

$19.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 44

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x06dc…45243 linked markets · $9.3K gross

0xd143…83ec2 linked markets · $7.8K gross

justdance3 linked markets · $3.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $1.4K

6hYES · $955

24hNO · $1.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current16.5¢

VWAP 24h50.0¢▼ below by 33.5pp

VWAP 7d41.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

$11

75¢

$6.6K

70¢

$642

65¢

60¢

55¢

$247

50¢

45¢

$239

40¢

$3.3K

35¢

$6.6K

30¢

$1.4K

25¢

$1.3K

20¢

15¢

← now

$4.5K

10¢

$3.0K

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.