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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $283.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $705.6KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac
4.5¢
Zhizhen Zhang
95.5¢
Tomas Machac
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets34Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:245 trades$257.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Zhizhen Zhang · $43.0K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$141.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTomas Machac$28.4K@ 48¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Tomas Machac pressure: $7.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.1K
6h
+$43.5K
tracked
$257.2K

12 verified profitable wallets: Zhizhen Zhang · $43.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 51

Since latest large flow: -58.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tomas Machac or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Zhizhen Zhang and Tomas Machac in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zhizhen Zhang' if Zhizhen Zhang advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Zhizhen Zhang. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Zhizhen Zhang@ 63.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -54.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Zhizhen Zhang1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Zhizhen Zhang1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Zhizhen Zhang@ 71.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h INVALIDATED -39.0pp
Latest book event: Zhizhen Zhang DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $5.8K · 59s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Zhizhen Zhang; negative values favor Tomas Machac. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Machac · $7.1K
6hZhizhen Zhang · $43.5K
24hZhizhen Zhang · $43.5K

Zhizhen Zhang price VWAP

Volume-weighted Zhizhen Zhang price. Tomas Machac fills are converted to the complementary Zhizhen Zhang probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h47.8¢▼ below by 43.3pp
VWAP 7d47.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Zhizhen Zhang price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$17.0K
80¢
$16
75¢
$23.5K
70¢
$9.3K
65¢
$25.9K
60¢
$15.7K
55¢
$36.4K
50¢
$28.4K
45¢
$4.2K
40¢
$8.5K
35¢
$13.3K
30¢
$28
25¢
$0
20¢
$5
15¢
$1.2K
10¢
$69.7K
5¢
$4.2K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTomas Machac$19.4K@ 88.0¢
0xc1acc10x7f61…293d
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYTomas Machac$11.2K@ 89.8¢0x08a3…8666🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYZhizhen Zhang$19.5K@ 13.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYZhizhen Zhang$15.0K@ 85.6¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYZhizhen Zhang$15.7K@ 77.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYZhizhen Zhang$15.0K@ 57.6¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTomas Machac$28.4K@ 48.4¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesZhizhen Zhang$42.7K
BUY VWAP 46.3¢·33 fills
ferrariChampions2026Tomas Machac$29.6K
BUY VWAP 47.8¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Zhizhen Zhang$29.2K
BUY VWAP 69.5¢·5 fills
0xc1acc1Tomas Machac$21.4K
BUY VWAP 88.2¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Zhizhen Zhang$19.5K
BUY VWAP 13.0¢·1 fill
one8tyfiveZhizhen Zhang$15.7K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooZhizhen Zhang$15.0K
BUY VWAP 57.6¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesTomas Machac$14.9K
BUY VWAP 35.3¢·23 fills
0x08a3…8666Tomas Machac$11.2K
BUY VWAP 89.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.