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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic

Sports→TennisSettlement: Arthur FeryLiquidity: $235.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $584.7KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
100.0¢
Arthur Fery payout
0.0¢
Marin Cilic payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:114 trades$258.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 66 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marin Cilic · $4.2K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$108.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLArthur Fery$25.0K@ 83¢·Luzzzer

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Arthur Fery. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Marin Cilic in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Marin Cilic. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Arthur Fery@ 97.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fery@ 61.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Marin Cilic@ 40.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Marin Cilic@ 40.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Arthur Fery UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $44.7K → $19.3K · 33s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fery; negative values favor Marin Cilic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fery · $77.1K
6hArthur Fery · $47.7K
24hArthur Fery · $50.7K

Arthur Fery price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fery price. Marin Cilic fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fery probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h70.6¢▲ above by 29.4pp
VWAP 7d70.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fery price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$36.0K
90¢
$5
85¢
$28.5K
80¢
$25.2K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$27.5K
60¢
$101.1K
55¢
$29.5K
50¢
$9.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLArthur Fery$25.0K@ 83.3¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYArthur Fery$20.0K@ 59.6¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYArthur Fery$19.6K@ 65.5¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMarin Cilic$11.2K@ 39.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYMarin Cilic$19.5K@ 39.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYMarin Cilic$19.5K@ 39.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYArthur Fery$17.4K@ 60.7¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Marin Cilic$50.2K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesArthur Fery$27.8K
BUY VWAP 84.8¢·6 fills
kdvlklkvlsklkfsArthur Fery$24.6K
BUY VWAP 60.8¢·2 fills
0x760f…326aArthur Fery$20.0K
BUY VWAP 59.6¢·1 fill
LuzzzerArthur Fery$19.6K
BUY VWAP 65.5¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardArthur Fery$14.3K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.