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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Holger Rune vs Daniel Altmaier

Sports→TennisSettlement: Daniel AltmaierLiquidity: $1.2MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Holger Rune vs Daniel Altmaier
0.0¢
Holger Rune payout
100.0¢
Daniel Altmaier payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:309 trades$574.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Holger Rune · $11.1K net·15 wallets(2🐋)·$172.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniel Altmaier$41.4K@ 89¢·Luzzzer

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Daniel Altmaier. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Holger Rune and Daniel Altmaier in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Holger Rune' if Holger Rune advances against Daniel Altmaier. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Altmaier' if Daniel Altmaier advances against Holger Rune. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Holger Rune1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Daniel Altmaier@ 38.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Holger Rune@ 59.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniel Altmaier@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Daniel Altmaier UP 10.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $14.4K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Holger Rune; negative values favor Daniel Altmaier. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHolger Rune · $136.8K
6hHolger Rune · $185.8K
24hHolger Rune · $192.4K

Holger Rune price VWAP

Volume-weighted Holger Rune price. Daniel Altmaier fills are converted to the complementary Holger Rune probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h43.5¢▼ below by 43.5pp
VWAP 7d43.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Holger Rune price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$3.3K
85¢
$9.3K
80¢
$10.6K
75¢
$11.8K
70¢
$3.7K
65¢
$21.9K
60¢
$74.2K
55¢
$79.3K
50¢
$70.3K
45¢
$92.4K
40¢
$48.9K
35¢
$2.8K
30¢
$0
25¢
$8.7K
20¢
$2.6K
15¢
$3.6K
10¢
$48.9K
5¢
$12.1K
0¢
← now
$70.0K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaniel Altmaier$35.0K@ 99.9¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLDaniel Altmaier$41.4K@ 89.4¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHolger Rune$14.5K@ 64.8¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHolger Rune$18.4K@ 61.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLDaniel Altmaier$10.5K@ 44.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHolger Rune$32.2K@ 53.5¢
Mastermoney0xbe23…b587
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHolger Rune$16.0K@ 54.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHolger Rune$10.0K@ 43.2¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniel Altmaier$10.4K@ 56.0¢0x5fd2…afce🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniel Altmaier$33.2K@ 54.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cHolger Rune$35.7K
BUY VWAP 57.6¢·8 fills
HVABDaniel Altmaier$33.2K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
MastermoneyHolger Rune$32.2K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesDaniel Altmaier$26.5K
BUY VWAP 60.2¢·14 fills
0x076d…8d4cDaniel Altmaier$26.0K
BUY VWAP 50.2¢·21 fills
kkookkooHolger Rune$21.0K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardHolger Rune$19.5K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·6 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseHolger Rune$14.5K
BUY VWAP 64.8¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesHolger Rune$14.3K
BUY VWAP 63.3¢·6 fills
LuzzzerDaniel Altmaier$14.0K
BUY VWAP 31.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.