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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth

● quote 20s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $118.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $176.1KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth
64.5¢
Hubert Hurkacz
35.5¢
James Duckworth
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:54 trades$72.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hubert Hurkacz · $55.7K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$55.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHubert Hurkacz$14.1K@ 67¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$8
6h
+$5.8K
tracked
$72.5K

5 verified profitable wallets: Hubert Hurkacz · $55.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and James Duckworth in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against James Duckworth. This market will resolve to 'James Duckworth' if James Duckworth advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hubert Hurkacz@ 68.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: Hubert Hurkacz DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $10 → $69 · 79s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hubert Hurkacz; negative values favor James Duckworth. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJames Duckworth · $8
6hHubert Hurkacz · $5.8K
24hHubert Hurkacz · $42.5K

Hubert Hurkacz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hubert Hurkacz price. James Duckworth fills are converted to the complementary Hubert Hurkacz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h66.5¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d66.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hubert Hurkacz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.2K
65¢
$68.6K
60¢
← now
$8
55¢
$5.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHubert Hurkacz$14.1K@ 67.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Hubert Hurkacz$33.9K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·4 fills
0x076d…8d4cHubert Hurkacz$19.2K
BUY VWAP 67.4¢·9 fills
RafalcarazJames Duckworth$10.2K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.