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Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $166.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $56.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
31.5¢
Team Falcons
68.5¢
Natus Vincere
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$27.3K trackedsource coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 147 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $18.5K net·2 wallets·$24.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$5.6K@ 68¢·0x29b5…cc6c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$251
tracked
$27.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $18.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 147 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Team Falcons and Natus Vincere in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $48.1K gross
Partyarty912 linked markets · $10.0K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $5.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 69.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Falcons; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Falcons · $0
6hTeam Falcons · $251
24hNatus Vincere · $15.5K

Team Falcons price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Falcons price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Team Falcons probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h32.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d32.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Falcons price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3.0K
30¢
← now
$24.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cNatus Vincere$21.4K
BUY VWAP 68.6¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.