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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adolfo Vallejo vs Valentin Royer

● quote 5 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $112.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $199.1KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adolfo Vallejo vs Valentin Royer
99.9¢
Adolfo Vallejo
0.3¢
Valentin Royer
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:72 trades$94.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adolfo Vallejo · $1.0K net·8 wallets·$27.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAdolfo Vallejo$10.1K@ 98¢·0x09be…9c32

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Adolfo Vallejo pressure: $24.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$24.4K
6h
+$42.4K
tracked
$94.6K

8 verified profitable wallets: Adolfo Vallejo · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Adolfo Vallejo or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Adolfo Vallejo and Valentin Royer in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adolfo Vallejo' if Adolfo Vallejo advances against Valentin Royer. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Royer' if Valentin Royer advances against Adolfo Vallejo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Adolfo Vallejo DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $81.4K → $39.8K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Adolfo Vallejo; negative values favor Valentin Royer. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdolfo Vallejo · $24.4K
6hAdolfo Vallejo · $42.4K
24hAdolfo Vallejo · $39.9K

Adolfo Vallejo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Adolfo Vallejo price. Valentin Royer fills are converted to the complementary Adolfo Vallejo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h74.9¢▲ above by 25.0pp
VWAP 7d74.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Adolfo Vallejo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$26.8K
90¢
$9.3K
85¢
$7.2K
80¢
$2.2K
75¢
$0
70¢
$4.6K
65¢
$0
60¢
$5
55¢
$26.5K
50¢
$19.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAdolfo Vallejo$10.1K@ 97.7¢0x09be…9c32🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fastball67Adolfo Vallejo$11.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
0x09be…9c32Adolfo Vallejo$10.1K
BUY VWAP 97.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.