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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $45.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $35.9KEvent: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
77.0¢
YES
23.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution76Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$19.7K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 357 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $22.5K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$22.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.8K@ 70¢·nojnn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$50
tracked
$19.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $22.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 357 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 74.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp6h CONFIRMED +5.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $50
24hYES · $19.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.0¢
VWAP 24h70.9¢▲ above by 6.1pp
VWAP 7d71.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$60
75¢
← now
$3.0K
70¢
$10.1K
65¢
$11.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.8K@ 69.8¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

nojnnYes$19.6K
BUY VWAP 71.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.