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Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

● quote just now
Politics→Geopolitics→ElectionsCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $723.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.0MEvent: Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

46.5¢
YES
53.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority40Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 121 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3940 trades$1.4M tracked1% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $87.7K net·121 wallets(19🐋)·$2.2M gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$151.7K@ 51¢·aenews2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $3.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.4K
6h
+$96.7K
tracked
$1.4M

121 verified profitable wallets: YES · $87.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 40

Since latest counter flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 30d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 37d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
dromedaryy2 linked markets · $301.2K gross
0x122c…fbed3 linked markets · $195.7K gross
denizz2 linked markets · $170.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

COUNTER FLOWBUY YES@ 47.0¢48m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
COUNTER FLOWBUY YES@ 47.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGESELL NO@ 47.0¢15h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 50.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h CONFIRMED +6.0pp24h CONFIRMED +5.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $24.1K → $7.9K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $3.4K
6hYES · $96.7K
24hNO · $138.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h46.72¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d35.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$14.6K
55¢
$276.9K
50¢
$609.1K
45¢
← now
$1.5M
40¢
$1.0M
35¢
$872.8K
30¢
$1.5M
25¢
$3.6M
20¢
$1.0M
15¢
$348.6K
10¢
$13.6K
5¢
$0
0¢
$4.3K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$13.7K@ 46.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$11.2K@ 56.0¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋—about 7 hours ago
SELLYES$12.1K@ 45.15¢
Gonnnnnn0x660b…4583
🐋—about 10 hours ago
SELLYES$10.8K@ 45.0¢
Bibi5550x18b8…c368
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYNO$15.0K@ 55.0¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—about 10 hours ago
SELLYES$55.8K@ 47.3¢
Bibi5550x18b8…c368
🐋—about 10 hours ago
SELLYES$31.3K@ 48.87¢
Bibi5550x18b8…c368
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYNO$20.1K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLYES$18.4K@ 51.0¢
Danielnorman940x3994…62ac
🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLYES$15.5K@ 50.43¢
Danielj0xda2d…1cee
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLNO$151.7K@ 51.35¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLNO$10.1K@ 50.0¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLNO$10.7K@ 55.0¢
defillama70x4c8c…e36f
🐋—about 17 hours ago
SELLYES$10.1K@ 42.48¢0x50be…371b🐋—about 17 hours ago
SELLNO$16.4K@ 54.15¢
fendya0xe202…ffae
🐋—about 18 hours ago
SELLYES$39.7K@ 44.2¢
RayZehavi0x121e…7751
🐋—about 18 hours ago
SELLYES$19.1K@ 46.82¢
Enavant0x3bf6…d13f
🐋—about 19 hours ago
SELLNO$10.7K@ 52.0¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYYES$23.5K@ 46.95¢0x389d…5866🐋—about 21 hours ago
SELLYES$68.2K@ 44.61¢
Neria1480x915f…ee19
🐋—about 21 hours ago
SELLYES$24.0K@ 47.54¢
roeiadut210xe010…1d0e
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$13.2K@ 51.18¢0x50be…371b🐋—about 21 hours ago
SELLNO$10.3K@ 55.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—about 22 hours ago
SELLYES$15.2K@ 42.12¢
inrock300xd576…d5e3
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 56.92¢0x35be…c77f🐋—about 22 hours ago
SELLYES$13.0K@ 43.0¢0x9ea3…6e53🐋—about 23 hours ago
SELLYES$23.9K@ 45.71¢0xab41…fe89🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$30.8K@ 57.03¢
GlobalMuffin0xff1e…5e2d
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$13.5K@ 43.41¢0xe312…e0b2🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$23.6K@ 45.39¢
Dmi470x87a6…30e1
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$18.4K@ 48.01¢0x35be…c77f🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$17.5K@ 47.05¢
mountaindewd0x944e…8c94
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 52.21¢0x35be…c77f🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$24.9K@ 48.02¢
Dmi470x87a6…30e1
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$18.8K@ 51.26¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 49.0¢
HBCM0xdf5c…bf77
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$52.1K@ 50.0¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$30.0K@ 54.88¢
Bibi5550x18b8…c368
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$62.3K@ 44.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$42.3K@ 41.52¢
mazan0x802b…712e
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 60.0¢
topdaddy10xf020…3212
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$13.8K@ 59.15¢
I_SUCK_🍆_4_CASH0xa845…2307
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$30.9K@ 45.0¢
mazan0x802b…712e
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 55.0¢
GayPride0x551e…b0e0
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$18.7K@ 46.0¢
vavwqevw0x8e4d…583d
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$10.9K@ 49.0¢
vavwqevw0x8e4d…583d
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$13.1K@ 50.0¢
WordleAddict0xe25b…0f1b
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$14.5K@ 51.0¢
seal70x2b9d…adc0
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$19.0K@ 47.37¢
informedtrader0xe5e9…34dc
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$10.4K@ 52.0¢
itamarBenGvir0x3403…9906
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NoCryInCasinoNo$388.5K
BUY VWAP 81.11¢·7 fills
dromedaryyNo$168.1K
BUY VWAP 54.06¢·6 fills
0xdccc…85d4Yes$155.7K
BUY VWAP 29.78¢·20 fills
MisTKyNo$110.2K
BUY VWAP 72.87¢·22 fills
Bibi555Yes$95.0K
BUY VWAP 37.11¢·7 fills
BertapotamousNo$87.6K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
topdaddy1Yes$76.0K
BUY VWAP 50.84¢·7 fills
aenews2No$72.0K
BUY VWAP 66.11¢·7 fills
fuxfux007Yes$71.7K
BUY VWAP 46.91¢·13 fills
dromedaryyYes$60.0K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.