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Villena: Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $10.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $195.2KEvent: Villena: Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet
64.5¢
Francesco Maestrelli
35.5¢
Oliver Tarvet
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly92Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:60 trades$64.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Oliver Tarvet · $821 net·3 wallets·$1.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$12.0K@ 65¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Francesco Maestrelli pressure: $1.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.7K
6h
−$6.1K
tracked
$64.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: Oliver Tarvet · $821 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Francesco Maestrelli or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Maestrelli and Oliver Tarvet in the Villena, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Oliver Tarvet. This market will resolve to 'Oliver Tarvet' if Oliver Tarvet advances against Francesco Maestrelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Francesco Maestrelli@ 64.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Maestrelli@ 67.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: Francesco Maestrelli DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $948 → $552 · 73s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Maestrelli; negative values favor Oliver Tarvet. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesco Maestrelli · $1.7K
6hOliver Tarvet · $6.1K
24hFrancesco Maestrelli · $2.3K

Francesco Maestrelli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Maestrelli price. Oliver Tarvet fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Maestrelli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h59.5¢▲ above by 5.0pp
VWAP 7d59.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Maestrelli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.7K
65¢
$7.7K
60¢
← now
$38.9K
55¢
$10
50¢
$3.2K
45¢
$11.4K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$131
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFrancesco Maestrelli$11.9K@ 62.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$12.0K@ 64.8¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$10.0K@ 46.4¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooFrancesco Maestrelli$16.0K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·2 fills
0x760f…326aFrancesco Maestrelli$10.0K
BUY VWAP 46.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.