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Spread: Northwestern (-35.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 18 minutesLiquidity: $77.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $271Event: Ball State vs. Northwestern
51.0¢
Northwestern
49.0¢
Ball State
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$16.2K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 144 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNorthwestern$11.5K@ 49¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$6.8K
tracked
$16.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Northwestern · $11.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 144 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Northwestern" if Northwestern win the game by 36 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ball State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 10 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Northwestern" if Northwestern win the game by 36 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ball State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Northwestern; negative values favor Ball State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNorthwestern · $0
6hNorthwestern · $6.8K
24hNorthwestern · $6.8K

Northwestern price VWAP

Volume-weighted Northwestern price. Ball State fills are converted to the complementary Northwestern probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.0¢
VWAP 24h49.1¢▲ above by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d49.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Northwestern price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$2.0K
45¢
$14.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNorthwestern$11.5K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Northwestern$11.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.