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The Citadel vs. Texas A&M: 1H O/U 24.5

● quote 8 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $598Official 24h Vol: $56.1KEvent: The Citadel vs. Texas A&M
97.0¢
Over
0.1¢
Under
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution2Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:4 trades$54.5K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 97%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$24.8K@ 99¢·RoshanMVP

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$54.5K
tracked
$54.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 4 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 110 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if The Citadel and Texas A&M combine to score 25 or more points in the first half.

•If the combined first half total is less than 25, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the first half of the college football game between The Citadel and Texas A&M, scheduled for October 17 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if The Citadel and Texas A&M combine to score 25 or more points in the first half. If the combined first half total is less than 25, this market will resolve to "Under". Only points scored during that period count; overtime is not included. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1winstreak13 linked markets · $515 gross
TinaGoat3 linked markets · $53 gross
iWasEnough3 linked markets · $15 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hOver · $54.5K
24hOver · $54.5K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.0¢
VWAP 24h99.0¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d99.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$54.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$24.8K@ 99.0¢
RoshanMVP0xa16a…33a1
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RoshanMVPOver$54.5K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.