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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Sports→TennisSettlement: Adrian MannarinoLiquidity: $195.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $624.9KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
100.0¢
Adrian Mannarino payout
0.0¢
Nikoloz Basilashvili payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:92 trades$433.6K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 69%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 38 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adrian Mannarino · $11.7K net·6 wallets·$21.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAdrian Mannarino$108.5K@ 100¢·0x08a3…8666

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Adrian Mannarino. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-14 05:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Adrian Mannarino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 39m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 39m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 78.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 80.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Adrian Mannarino2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +28.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Nikoloz Basilashvili DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $17.6K → $2.7K · 55s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Adrian Mannarino; negative values favor Nikoloz Basilashvili. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdrian Mannarino · $75.4K
6hAdrian Mannarino · $81.6K
24hAdrian Mannarino · $94.7K

Adrian Mannarino price VWAP

Volume-weighted Adrian Mannarino price. Nikoloz Basilashvili fills are converted to the complementary Adrian Mannarino probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h85.5¢▲ above by 14.5pp
VWAP 7d85.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Adrian Mannarino price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$178.1K
90¢
$10.1K
85¢
$94.2K
80¢
$5.6K
75¢
$87.7K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$44
50¢
$30.6K
45¢
$27.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAdrian Mannarino$13.7K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLAdrian Mannarino$108.5K@ 99.9¢0x08a3…8666🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$30.3K@ 95.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$94.2K@ 89.3¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$61.6K@ 77.0¢0x08a3…8666🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$24.2K@ 77.0¢0x08a3…8666🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$19.0K@ 52.3¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennizAdrian Mannarino$94.2K
BUY VWAP 89.3¢·1 fill
0x08a3…8666Adrian Mannarino$90.8K
BUY VWAP 77.3¢·5 fills
one8tyfiveAdrian Mannarino$30.3K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooAdrian Mannarino$19.0K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cAdrian Mannarino$10.1K
BUY VWAP 90.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.