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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alex MolcanLiquidity: $123.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $641.2KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina
100.0¢
Alex Molcan payout
0.0¢
Federico Cina payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:136 trades$359.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Federico Cina · $26.5K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$44.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlex Molcan$167.1K@ 100¢·0x08a3…8666

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex Molcan. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-14 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Federico Cina in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Federico Cina. This market will resolve to 'Federico Cina' if Federico Cina advances against Alex Molcan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 9m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 9m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Molcan2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Alex Molcan@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Molcan2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Molcan@ 32.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +32.0pp1h CONFIRMED +64.5pp
Latest book event: Federico Cina DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $3 → $2.2K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Molcan; negative values favor Federico Cina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFederico Cina · $205.9K
6hFederico Cina · $135.8K
24hFederico Cina · $135.8K

Alex Molcan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Molcan price. Federico Cina fills are converted to the complementary Alex Molcan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h85.1¢▲ above by 14.9pp
VWAP 7d85.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Molcan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$208.2K
90¢
$131
85¢
$70
80¢
$0
75¢
$35.6K
70¢
$48.4K
65¢
$10.4K
60¢
$17.3K
55¢
$18.9K
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$250
40¢
$11.4K
35¢
$1.0K
30¢
$6.4K
25¢
$24
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex Molcan$167.1K@ 99.9¢0x08a3…8666🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLAlex Molcan$16.2K@ 95.4¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Molcan$10.0K@ 44.2¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Molcan$18.5K@ 74.0¢0x08a3…8666🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFederico Cina$22.7K@ 24.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Molcan$19.7K@ 70.5¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex Molcan$10.3K@ 60.7¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooAlex Molcan$25.7K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·2 fills
0x08a3…8666Alex Molcan$25.2K
BUY VWAP 74.4¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Federico Cina$22.7K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·2 fills
LuzzzerAlex Molcan$10.3K
BUY VWAP 60.7¢·1 fill
0x760f…326aAlex Molcan$10.0K
BUY VWAP 44.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.