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China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek

Sports→TennisSettlement: Elise MertensLiquidity: $1.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $741.3KEvent: China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek
100.0¢
Elise Mertens payout
0.0¢
Iga Swiatek payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:184 trades$292.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 38 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elise Mertens · $79.0K net·11 wallets(3🐋)·$113.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElise Mertens$31.0K@ 60¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Elise Mertens. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-15 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elise Mertens and Iga Swiatek in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Iga Swiatek. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Elise Mertens. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 28m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 28m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Elise Mertens1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Elise Mertens1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Elise Mertens@ 63.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Elise Mertens@ 63.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Iga Swiatek DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $9.0K → $2.4K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elise Mertens; negative values favor Iga Swiatek. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIga Swiatek · $32.3K
6hElise Mertens · $30.7K
24hElise Mertens · $27.4K

Elise Mertens price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elise Mertens price. Iga Swiatek fills are converted to the complementary Elise Mertens probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h67.5¢▲ above by 32.5pp
VWAP 7d66.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elise Mertens price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$56.3K
90¢
$24.7K
85¢
$11.6K
80¢
$13.4K
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$8.5K
60¢
$133.7K
55¢
$257
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$4
30¢
$190
25¢
$13.6K
20¢
$23.9K
15¢
$9.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElise Mertens$27.9K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLElise Mertens$10.8K@ 93.0¢
flatbarrel0x6485…a265
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElise Mertens$11.7K@ 60.1¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElise Mertens$31.0K@ 60.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Elise Mertens$31.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesElise Mertens$26.2K
BUY VWAP 62.3¢·21 fills
redvinnyElise Mertens$14.0K
BUY VWAP 84.1¢·4 fills
ferrariChampions2026Elise Mertens$11.7K
BUY VWAP 60.1¢·1 fill
FlaznorpElise Mertens$11.7K
BUY VWAP 59.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.