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Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $118.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $144.5KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
0.1¢
JD Gaming
99.9¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly80Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets23Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$66.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $20 net·3 wallets·$86 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNatus Vincere$13.7K@ 100¢·Uniform123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

JD Gaming pressure: $1.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.5K
6h
−$2.4K
tracked
$66.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $20 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -55.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from JD Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming wins 2 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 4 match between Natus Vincere and JD Gaming in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming wins 2 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BrotherObama2 linked markets · $34.5K gross
Sunshine.Smile3 linked markets · $31.2K gross
lhz60023 linked markets · $27.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 55.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Natus Vincere UP 8.0pp · near-book depth $187 → $718 · 36s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor JD Gaming; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJD Gaming · $1.5K
6hNatus Vincere · $2.4K
24hJD Gaming · $6.3K

JD Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted JD Gaming price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary JD Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h34.0¢▼ below by 33.9pp
VWAP 7d34.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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JD Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$48.0K
40¢
$357
35¢
$0
30¢
$12
25¢
$31
20¢
$2
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$17.7K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNatus Vincere$13.7K@ 99.9¢
Uniform1230xe548…a9fe
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaNatus Vincere$27.0K
BUY VWAP 54.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.