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Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $174.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
100.0¢
Aurora Gaming
0.1¢
1WIN
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly86Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets82Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$55.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:1WIN · $15.0K net·4 wallets·$18.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY1WIN$20.0K@ 59¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

1WIN pressure: $1.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.3K
6h
−$36.1K
tracked
$55.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: 1WIN · $15.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -58.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from 1WIN or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than 1WIN in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1WIN".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between 1WIN and Aurora Gaming in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 4:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than 1WIN in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1WIN". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 9, 2026 at 4:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
redvinny2 linked markets · $36.8K gross
TommyLeePeeca2 linked markets · $33.5K gross
5e46h3 linked markets · $19.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 1WIN@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.0pp
Latest book event: 1WIN DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $24 → $10 · 80s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor 1WIN. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h1WIN · $1.3K
6h1WIN · $36.1K
24h1WIN · $39.1K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. 1WIN fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h44.1¢▲ above by 55.8pp
VWAP 7d44.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$10
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$2
55¢
$226
50¢
$0
45¢
$5.2K
40¢
$45.6K
35¢
$983
30¢
$63
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY1WIN$20.0K@ 59.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObama1WIN$20.0K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
0x29b5…cc6c1WIN$13.2K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.