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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $164.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $926.8KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz
5.5¢
Novak Djokovic
94.5¢
Hubert Hurkacz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:230 trades$399.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 36s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hubert Hurkacz · $49.3K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$145.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHubert Hurkacz$22.9K@ 39¢·Eztennis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Hubert Hurkacz pressure: $31.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$31.0K
6h
−$30.0K
tracked
$399.9K

12 verified profitable wallets: Hubert Hurkacz · $49.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 53

Since latest market sweep: +22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 22.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hubert Hurkacz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Hubert Hurkacz in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Hubert Hurkacz. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Novak Djokovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Hubert Hurkacz2m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Hubert Hurkacz@ 73.0¢19m ago
15m CONFIRMED +21.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Novak Djokovic1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Novak Djokovic@ 59.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -27.0pp
Latest book event: Hubert Hurkacz UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $563 → $17.0K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Novak Djokovic; negative values favor Hubert Hurkacz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHubert Hurkacz · $31.0K
6hHubert Hurkacz · $30.0K
24hHubert Hurkacz · $17.1K

Novak Djokovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Novak Djokovic price. Hubert Hurkacz fills are converted to the complementary Novak Djokovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.5¢
VWAP 24h48.9¢▼ below by 43.4pp
VWAP 7d48.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Novak Djokovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$37.5K
60¢
$158.8K
55¢
$53.6K
50¢
$23.8K
45¢
$7.6K
40¢
$8
35¢
$18
30¢
$29.5K
25¢
$36.8K
20¢
$3.4K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$13.1K
5¢
← now
$34.2K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHubert Hurkacz$10.0K@ 93.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—3 minutes ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$11.9K@ 32.6¢
12341620x45e4…3c69
🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$14.9K@ 63.0¢
12341620x45e4…3c69
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$16.5K@ 61.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHubert Hurkacz$22.9K@ 38.9¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$11.3K@ 66.0¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

EztennisHubert Hurkacz$46.9K
BUY VWAP 38.2¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesHubert Hurkacz$43.4K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·21 fills
1234162Novak Djokovic$26.8K
BUY VWAP 44.6¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cNovak Djokovic$21.9K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·3 fills
DktbNovak Djokovic$21.1K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·3 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseHubert Hurkacz$19.9K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·2 fills
dmoralezHubert Hurkacz$15.4K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Hubert Hurkacz$14.4K
BUY VWAP 40.6¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Novak Djokovic$13.6K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·3 fills
KkunnHubert Hurkacz$12.9K
BUY VWAP 41.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.