Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $43.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $77.4KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on October 15?

66.9¢

YES

33.1¢

1.8¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets80Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:12 trades$4.0K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.4K net·3 wallets·$1.7K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$1.6K@ 22¢·konsomida

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.6K net directional flow in 1h.

−$1.6K

−$141

tracked

$4.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.8¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
•Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-15 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

gobblewobble2 linked markets · $1.0K gross

0x4176…fd862 linked markets · $8 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: YES UP 2.7pp · near-book depth $9.2K → $1.3K · 81s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $1.6K

6hNO · $141

24hYES · $859

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current66.9¢

VWAP 24h82.7¢▼ below by 15.8pp

VWAP 7d82.7¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

$1.0K

80¢

$1.3K

75¢

$1.7K

70¢

$71

65¢

← now

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.