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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot

● quote 13s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $159.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $739.9KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
100.0¢
Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Valentin Vacherot
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:167 trades$298.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tommy Paul · $32.3K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$67.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTommy Paul$23.6K@ 100¢·madkkee

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Valentin Vacherot pressure: $27.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$27.4K
6h
+$10.9K
tracked
$298.0K

9 verified profitable wallets: Tommy Paul · $32.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Valentin Vacherot or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Valentin Vacherot in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Valentin Vacherot. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Vacherot' if Valentin Vacherot advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $4.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Tommy Paul@ 93.0¢40m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Tommy Paul2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Tommy Paul@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +29.0pp
Latest book event: Tommy Paul UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $23.0K → $3.8K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tommy Paul; negative values favor Valentin Vacherot. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValentin Vacherot · $27.4K
6hTommy Paul · $10.9K
24hTommy Paul · $20.5K

Tommy Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tommy Paul price. Valentin Vacherot fills are converted to the complementary Tommy Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.5¢▲ above by 30.4pp
VWAP 7d69.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tommy Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$58.5K
90¢
$14.1K
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.4K
75¢
$31.7K
70¢
$8.8K
65¢
$3.7K
60¢
$54.3K
55¢
$69.9K
50¢
$45.7K
45¢
$9.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTommy Paul$23.6K@ 99.9¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—25 minutes ago
SELLTommy Paul$11.8K@ 98.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYTommy Paul$11.1K@ 54.0¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYValentin Vacherot$15.0K@ 37.9¢0x760f…326a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$11.8K@ 51.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$10.4K@ 59.1¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Paul vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 22.5
57.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tommy Paul vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kdvlklkvlsklkfsTommy Paul$31.6K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·4 fills
0x760f…326aValentin Vacherot$15.0K
BUY VWAP 37.9¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesTommy Paul$14.0K
BUY VWAP 84.9¢·6 fills
KkunnValentin Vacherot$13.7K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
FlaznorpTommy Paul$11.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0x0cdf…ec9eTommy Paul$10.4K
BUY VWAP 59.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.