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Tommy Paul vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5

● quote 59 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
51.0¢
Over 2.5
43.0¢
NO
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$5 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 179 min agoofficial metadata 41 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$5
tracked
$5

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 59 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 179 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 3, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Valentin Vacherot in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 3, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, or is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. An outcome is considered unequivocally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, for a line of 2.5, if play stops with the players at one set each, completing the match would have required at least one additional set, resulting in at least 3 sets played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or has not been completed by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless an outcome was already unequivocally determined as described above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $4.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 17.5pp · near-book depth $0 → $355 · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over 2.5; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver 2.5 · $0
6hOver 2.5 · $5
24hOver 2.5 · $5

Over 2.5 price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over 2.5 price. NO fills are converted to the complementary Over 2.5 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.0¢
VWAP 24h40.0¢▲ above by 11.0pp
VWAP 7d40.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over 2.5 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$5
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
0.0¢$750.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 22.5
57.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Valentin Vacherot
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Valentin Vacherot (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.