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Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)

Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeSettlement: Aurora GamingLiquidity: $216.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $135.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
0.0¢
Spirit payout
100.0¢
Aurora Gaming payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:20 trades$51.3K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 121 min agoofficial metadata 37 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Spirit · $3.7K net·2 wallets·$3.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit$18.6K@ 41¢·Lakersfan111

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Aurora Gaming. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-11 17:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike 3rd Place match between Aurora Gaming and Spirit in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 11, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $48.8K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $36.9K gross
Sunshine.Smile2 linked markets · $27.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 42.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -16.0pp
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming UP 11.0pp · near-book depth $353 → $697 · 40s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $0
6hSpirit · $13.4K
24hSpirit · $16.3K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h37.3¢▼ below by 37.3pp
VWAP 7d37.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$46.9K
35¢
$3
30¢
$0
25¢
$11
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.4K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$14.8K@ 59.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSpirit$18.6K@ 41.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Spirit$18.6K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill
juice-fruitAurora Gaming$14.8K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.