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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · ValorantCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $72.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $449.8KEvent: Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
53.5¢
100 Thieves
46.5¢
G2 Esports
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets5Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:320 trades$117.4K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:G2 Esports · $72 net·16 wallets·$29.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY100 Thieves$14.3K@ 65¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

G2 Esports pressure: $3.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.1K
6h
+$30.9K
tracked
$117.4K

16 verified profitable wallets: G2 Esports · $72 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 81% · priority 43

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from G2 Esports or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against G2 Esports.

•This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win the match against 100 Thieves.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Lower Bracket Semifinal match between 100 Thieves and G2 Esports in the VCT Champions Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against G2 Esports. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $31.8K gross
xytest3 linked markets · $18.6K gross
cruzNBA2 linked markets · $14.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: G2 Esports DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $178 → $210 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 100 Thieves; negative values favor G2 Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hG2 Esports · $3.1K
6h100 Thieves · $30.9K
24h100 Thieves · $32.0K

100 Thieves price VWAP

Volume-weighted 100 Thieves price. G2 Esports fills are converted to the complementary 100 Thieves probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h56.1¢▼ below by 2.6pp
VWAP 7d56.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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100 Thieves price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$508
65¢
$46.9K
60¢
$31.3K
55¢
$10.1K
50¢
← now
$2.3K
45¢
$5.9K
40¢
$7.4K
35¢
$11.6K
30¢
$7.5K
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$1.5K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY100 Thieves$14.3K@ 65.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner
83.5¢$268.2Kpriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)
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Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5
0.0¢$314priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)
0.0¢$190priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)
0.0¢$20priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SineNooneEI100 Thieves$14.3K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.