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Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

● quote 12s ago
Politics→ElectionsCloses: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $265.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $43.2KEvent: Presidential Election Winner 2028
8.0¢
YES
92.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:64 trades$4.3K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 38 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $611 net·5 wallets·$1.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$3.7K@ 3¢·Ed2357

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$19
6h
+$126
tracked
$4.3K

5 verified profitable wallets: YES · $611 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 38 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 11d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 19d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
f0afjr2 linked markets · $10.2K gross
lonelyfighter12 linked markets · $10.1K gross
WarriorH4 linked markets · $9.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 13.7¢58d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.4pp24h STALLED -0.7pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $19
6hYES · $126
24hYES · $3.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current8.0¢
VWAP 24h8.3¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d7.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.0K
10¢
$35.5K
5¢
← now
$44.6K
0¢
$3.7K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.