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Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Zizou Bergs (+1.5)

● quote 76 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.1KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs
99.9¢
Tommy Paul
26.0¢
Zizou Bergs
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
24h sample:4 trades$1.3K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 207 min agoofficial metadata 87 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYZizou Bergs$1.2K@ 59¢·dinimami

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.2K
tracked
$1.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 76 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 207 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 87 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Tommy Paul" if Tommy Paul wins by 2 or more sets than Zizou Bergs, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Zizou Bergs."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Tommy Paul can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Zizou Bergs."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Zizou Bergs in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Tommy Paul" if Tommy Paul wins by 2 or more sets than Zizou Bergs, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Zizou Bergs." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Tommy Paul can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Zizou Bergs." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xfb57…67192 linked markets · $70 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tommy Paul; negative values favor Zizou Bergs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTommy Paul · $0
6hZizou Bergs · $1.2K
24hZizou Bergs · $1.2K

Tommy Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tommy Paul price. Zizou Bergs fills are converted to the complementary Tommy Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h40.8¢▲ above by 59.1pp
VWAP 7d40.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tommy Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$21
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs
0.0¢$472.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tommy Paul vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$4.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Tommy Paul (-2.5) vs Zizou Bergs (+2.5)
0.0¢$4.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs
0.0¢$2.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Bergs: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$385priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$116priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Bergs: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Bergs: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.