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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: almost 2 yearsLiquidity: $375.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $24.9KEvent: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

30.75¢
YES
69.25¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly26Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 25 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$15.8K trackedsource coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $3.6K net·25 wallets·$26.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$48.9K@ 43¢·GCottrell93

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.7K
6h
−$1.5K
tracked
$15.8K

25 verified profitable wallets: NO · $3.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 81% · priority 60

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 48d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd961…858f2 linked markets · $25.3K gross
PantheraUncia3 linked markets · $18.3K gross
Jsram2 linked markets · $18.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 41.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -1.2pp1h STALLED -1.6pp6h INVALIDATED -3.1pp24h INVALIDATED -4.5pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 51.9¢26d ago
15m STALLED -0.4pp1h STALLED -0.5pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 48.1¢96d ago
15m STALLED -1.3pp1h STALLED -1.9pp6h INVALIDATED -4.3pp24h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 45.0¢101d ago
15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -0.8pp6h STALLED -0.3pp24h STALLED +1.3pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1.7K
6hNO · $1.5K
24hNO · $11.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.75¢
VWAP 24h31.55¢▼ below by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d35.13¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$66.8K
40¢
$131.7K
35¢
$204.3K
30¢
← now
$112.5K
25¢
$2.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$24.9K@ 38.94¢
98better0xa8a9…bb81
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$38.2K@ 35.07¢
98better0xa8a9…bb81
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$23.3K@ 34.6¢
98better0xa8a9…bb81
🐋—5 days ago
SELLYES$10.2K@ 37.07¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$48.9K@ 42.65¢
GCottrell930x94a4…6356
🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$13.3K@ 41.3¢
GCottrell930x94a4…6356
🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$10.7K@ 44.67¢
Anon55660x5a56…adab
🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$25.4K@ 51.59¢
bifurcatio0xa9ea…1043
🐋—26 days ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 48.0¢
Pog0xe6ca…b27a
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$11.3K@ 56.46¢
BigRabbit0xeb22…808a
🐋—3 months ago
SELLYES$10.6K@ 43.8¢
HyperwellNerdZ0xb4ee…cc59
🐋—3 months ago
BUYYES$19.5K@ 48.36¢
bangbingbong0xd69a…f661
🐋—3 months ago
BUYYES$10.9K@ 46.0¢
chudhunter0xa667…84fe
🐋—3 months ago
BUYYES$12.9K@ 45.83¢
Evwo-Jaza0x4e3d…8554
🐋—3 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

98betterYes$86.3K
BUY VWAP 35.97¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.