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LoL: Mental Rush vs SK Gaming Avarosa (BO5) - LGC Rising Playoffs

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $71.4KEvent: LoL: Mental Rush vs SK Gaming Avarosa (BO5) - LGC Rising Playoffs
100.0¢
Mental Rush
0.1¢
SK Gaming Avarosa
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets87Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:113 trades$12.8K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mental Rush · $3.8K net·9 wallets·$4.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMental Rush$3.2K@ 74¢·aomendushen008

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Mental Rush pressure: $2.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.7K
6h
+$5.0K
tracked
$12.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Mental Rush · $3.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Mental Rush or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Mental Rush" if Mental Rush win the match against SK Gaming Avarosa.

•This market will resolve to "SK Gaming Avarosa" if SK Gaming Avarosa win the match against Mental Rush.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Semifinal 2 match between Mental Rush and SK Gaming Avarosa in the LGC Rising Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Mental Rush" if Mental Rush win the match against SK Gaming Avarosa. This market will resolve to "SK Gaming Avarosa" if SK Gaming Avarosa win the match against Mental Rush. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xb6b8…149b2 linked markets · $4.5K gross
aomendushen0082 linked markets · $3.3K gross
frohp52 linked markets · $656 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: SK Gaming Avarosa DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $35 → $29 · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mental Rush; negative values favor SK Gaming Avarosa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMental Rush · $2.7K
6hMental Rush · $5.0K
24hMental Rush · $4.8K

Mental Rush price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mental Rush price. SK Gaming Avarosa fills are converted to the complementary Mental Rush probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h72.2¢▲ above by 27.8pp
VWAP 7d72.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mental Rush price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$470
80¢
$1.8K
75¢
$527
70¢
$3.2K
65¢
$2
60¢
$143
55¢
$1.9K
50¢
$538
45¢
$1.1K
40¢
$26
35¢
$433
30¢
$247
25¢
$49
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.