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Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

● quote 7889 min ago
Politics→ElectionsCloses: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $318.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $6.8KEvent: Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Indicative prices · 7889 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

65.0¢
YES
35.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%
24h sample:2 trades$435 trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 74 min agoofficial metadata 7339 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$2.4K@ 65¢·0x5f5a…85a5

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$435
tracked
$435

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 7889 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 74 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 7339 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 23d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 40d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 40d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 69.0¢48d ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp24h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 68.0¢48d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 68.0¢48d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $435
24hYES · $435

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.0¢
VWAP 24h65.44¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d65.16¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$5.1K
60¢
$8.9K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$20.7K@ 69.0¢
loganx0x3a34…c974
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 67.58¢
alwayssaytrue0x417c…47e5
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$24.3K@ 66.8¢
rhmaxi0xe4d3…a194
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$19.3K@ 62.4¢
loganx0x3a34…c974
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.