PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $276.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $31Event: Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
64.5¢
YES
35.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$19.4K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 145 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$19.3K@ 62¢·0x3a34…c974

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$19.4K
tracked
$19.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 145 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-07 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $19.4K
24hYES · $19.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h62.4¢▲ above by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d62.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$21
60¢
← now
$20.9K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$19.3K@ 62.4¢0x3a34…c974🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$582.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.3¢$580.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$496.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?
0.1¢$395.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3a34…c974Yes$19.3K
BUY VWAP 62.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.