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Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Politics→ElectionsSettlement: NOLiquidity: $1.6MOfficial 24h Vol: $2.0MEvent: Michigan Senate Election Winner
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$204.9K@ 100¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 79.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 81.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 77.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 78.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp24h STALLED +2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $71.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h3.37¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d16.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$78.4K
25¢
$324.3K
20¢
$698.8K
15¢
$111.6K
10¢
$5.8K
5¢
$28.8K
0¢
← now
$461.9K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$204.9K@ 99.9¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$23.6K@ 99.9¢0x2c33…0563🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$15.1K@ 99.9¢
DonaldinhoTrumpito0x7523…4c4c
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$32.3K@ 99.9¢
scout0x2d99…4ca3
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$33.2K@ 99.8¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$24.9K@ 99.8¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$38.9K@ 82.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$17.6K@ 23.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$25.1K@ 77.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$14.0K@ 21.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$17.2K@ 82.0¢0xd8d5…8935🐋—9 days ago
SELLYES$17.2K@ 25.0¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 80.0¢
GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$159.0K@ 78.41¢
dubdubdub20x9c99…7250
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$114.5K@ 79.0¢
dubdubdub20x9c99…7250
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$15.4K@ 77.0¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$19.3K@ 77.0¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$19.2K@ 77.0¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$20.7K@ 77.0¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$12.6K@ 77.0¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$20.5K@ 78.0¢
gum1230x33e2…3a1b
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$18.3K@ 73.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$36.5K@ 73.0¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$43.2K@ 72.0¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—13 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.