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Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 2 monthsLiquidity: $57.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $124.0KEvent: Netanyahu out by...?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

20.5¢
YES
79.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly83Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:95 trades$34.8K trackedsource coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 36s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $14.9K net·11 wallets·$15.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.1K@ 39¢·itamarBenGvir

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$831
6h
−$59
tracked
$34.8K

11 verified profitable wallets: NO · $14.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 65d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $831
6hNO · $59
24hNO · $22.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h35.17¢▼ below by 14.7pp
VWAP 7d36.66¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$22
45¢
$9.9K
40¢
$54.5K
35¢
$23.1K
30¢
$2.9K
25¢
$4.6K
20¢
← now
$2.7K
15¢
$3.5K
10¢
$133
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.1K@ 39.25¢
itamarBenGvir0x3403…9906
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$11.3K@ 51.35¢
gopfan20xf2f6…5817
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$11.5K@ 52.89¢
gopfan20xf2f6…5817
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.