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Japan Women's Open: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $249.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $75.7KEvent: Japan Women's Open: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell
50.5¢
Sonay Kartal
49.5¢
Kimberly Birrell
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:48 trades$7.9K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 71 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kimberly Birrell · $699 net·6 wallets·$3.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSonay Kartal$1.5K@ 66¢·RollAwayTheDew

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$440
tracked
$7.9K

6 verified profitable wallets: Kimberly Birrell · $699 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 71 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sonay Kartal and Kimberly Birrell in the Japan Women's Open, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sonay Kartal' if Sonay Kartal advances against Kimberly Birrell. This market will resolve to 'Kimberly Birrell' if Kimberly Birrell advances against Sonay Kartal. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sonay Kartal; negative values favor Kimberly Birrell. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSonay Kartal · $0
6hKimberly Birrell · $440
24hKimberly Birrell · $263

Sonay Kartal price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sonay Kartal price. Kimberly Birrell fills are converted to the complementary Sonay Kartal probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h64.3¢▼ below by 13.8pp
VWAP 7d64.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sonay Kartal price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.2K
60¢
$4.7K
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$1
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Kimberly Birrell (-1.5) vs Sonay Kartal (+1.5)
0.0¢$3.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kartal vs. Birrell: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢$20priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell
66.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Sonay Kartal (-4.5) vs Kimberly Birrell (+4.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kartal vs. Birrell: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonay Kartal vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kartal vs. Birrell: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.