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Game Spread: Sonay Kartal (-4.5) vs Kimberly Birrell (+4.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Japan Women's Open: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell
0.0¢
Sonay Kartal
0.0¢
Kimberly Birrell
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$3 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 794 min agoofficial metadata 1194 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$3

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 794 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Sonay Kartal" if Sonay Kartal wins 4.5 or more total games than Kimberly Birrell in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kimberly Birrell".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Sonay Kartal could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Kimberly Birrell".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Sonay Kartal" if Sonay Kartal wins 4.5 or more total games than Kimberly Birrell in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kimberly Birrell". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Sonay Kartal could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Kimberly Birrell". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sonay Kartal; negative values favor Kimberly Birrell. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSonay Kartal · $0
6hSonay Kartal · $0
24hKimberly Birrell · $3

Sonay Kartal price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sonay Kartal price. Kimberly Birrell fills are converted to the complementary Sonay Kartal probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h47.0¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d47.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sonay Kartal price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Japan Women's Open: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell
50.5¢$76.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Kimberly Birrell (-1.5) vs Sonay Kartal (+1.5)
0.0¢$3.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kartal vs. Birrell: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢$20priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kartal vs. Birrell: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell
66.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sonay Kartal vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kartal vs. Birrell: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kartal vs. Birrell: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.