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Almaty Open, Qualification: Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $580.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.3KEvent: Almaty Open, Qualification: Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto
0.1¢
Gabriel Diallo
100.0¢
Rei Sakamoto
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:136 trades$77.4K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rei Sakamoto · $2.4K net·11 wallets·$42.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRei Sakamoto$7.5K@ 100¢·Salad1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Rei Sakamoto pressure: $3.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.5K
6h
+$6.0K
tracked
$77.4K

11 verified profitable wallets: Rei Sakamoto · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -72.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Rei Sakamoto or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Gabriel Diallo and Rei Sakamoto in the Almaty Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gabriel Diallo' if Gabriel Diallo advances against Rei Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Gabriel Diallo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $95 gross
0xb1f8…40062 linked markets · $4 gross
0xd9c9…66863 linked markets · $4 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Gabriel Diallo2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Gabriel Diallo@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
Latest book event: Rei Sakamoto UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $35.8K → $27.8K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Gabriel Diallo; negative values favor Rei Sakamoto. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRei Sakamoto · $3.5K
6hGabriel Diallo · $6.0K
24hGabriel Diallo · $4.8K

Gabriel Diallo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Gabriel Diallo price. Rei Sakamoto fills are converted to the complementary Gabriel Diallo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h36.4¢▼ below by 36.4pp
VWAP 7d36.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Gabriel Diallo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$170
75¢
$15
70¢
$8.8K
65¢
$297
60¢
$3.2K
55¢
$7.6K
50¢
$10.0K
45¢
$10.6K
40¢
$4.1K
35¢
$4.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$32
15¢
$1.5K
10¢
$9.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$17.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Gabriel Diallo$17.5K
BUY VWAP 49.3¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.