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Maia: Francesco Passaro vs Zsombor Piros

● quote 71 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $101.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $253.4KEvent: Maia: Francesco Passaro vs Zsombor Piros
99.9¢
Francesco Passaro
0.8¢
Zsombor Piros
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:61 trades$138.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 67 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesco Passaro · $20.8K net·6 wallets·$32.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFrancesco Passaro$45.2K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$9.6K
tracked
$138.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Francesco Passaro · $20.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +14.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 71 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 76 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 67 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Passaro and Zsombor Piros in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Zsombor Piros. This market will resolve to 'Zsombor Piros' if Zsombor Piros advances against Francesco Passaro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Passaro@ 86.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Francesco Passaro2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Passaro@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Zsombor Piros DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $4.9K → $162 · 27s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Passaro; negative values favor Zsombor Piros. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesco Passaro · $0
6hFrancesco Passaro · $9.6K
24hFrancesco Passaro · $9.6K

Francesco Passaro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Passaro price. Zsombor Piros fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Passaro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h79.9¢▲ above by 20.0pp
VWAP 7d79.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Passaro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$71.2K
90¢
$10.9K
85¢
$0
80¢
$9.5K
75¢
$140
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.4K
55¢
$4.5K
50¢
$4.0K
45¢
$25.1K
40¢
$1.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$4.1K
25¢
$5.5K
20¢
$4
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFrancesco Passaro$45.2K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFrancesco Passaro$24.7K@ 49.1¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Passaro vs. Piros: Match O/U 21.5
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Passaro vs. Piros: Match O/U 22.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstFrancesco Passaro$24.7K
BUY VWAP 49.1¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesFrancesco Passaro$17.7K
BUY VWAP 58.8¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.