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Game Spread: Ann Li (-4.5) vs Emerson Jones (+4.5)

● quote 317 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $4.0KEvent: Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Emerson Jones
50.5¢
Ann Li
49.5¢
Emerson Jones
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%
24h sample:2 trades$2.0K trackedsource coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 194 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAnn Li$2.0K@ 52¢·useruserlol

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$2.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 317 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 194 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Ann Li" if Ann Li wins 4.5 or more total games than Emerson Jones in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Emerson Jones".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Ann Li could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Emerson Jones".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Ann Li" if Ann Li wins 4.5 or more total games than Emerson Jones in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Emerson Jones". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Ann Li could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Emerson Jones". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $99 gross
0xfb57…67192 linked markets · $53 gross
0xf020…20f52 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ann Li; negative values favor Emerson Jones. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAnn Li · $0
6hAnn Li · $2.0K
24hAnn Li · $2.0K

Ann Li price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ann Li price. Emerson Jones fills are converted to the complementary Ann Li probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h52.0¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d52.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ann Li price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$2.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.