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European Open: Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alex MichelsenLiquidity: $115.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $253.5KEvent: European Open: Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen
0.0¢
Andrea Guerrieri payout
100.0¢
Alex Michelsen payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:41 trades$91.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 492 min agoofficial metadata 56 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $53.4K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$53.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$11.1K@ 81¢·ferrariChampions2026

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex Michelsen. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-26 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Guerrieri and Alex Michelsen in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Andrea Guerrieri. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
iWasEnough2 linked markets · $23 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Michelsen@ 96.0¢9h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Alex Michelsen UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $80.0K → $3.0K · 30s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Andrea Guerrieri; negative values favor Alex Michelsen. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAndrea Guerrieri · $0
6hAndrea Guerrieri · $0
24hAlex Michelsen · $46.8K

Andrea Guerrieri price VWAP

Volume-weighted Andrea Guerrieri price. Alex Michelsen fills are converted to the complementary Andrea Guerrieri probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h7.6¢▼ below by 7.6pp
VWAP 7d7.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Andrea Guerrieri price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$23
15¢
$20.3K
10¢
$4.0K
5¢
$38.9K
0¢
← now
$28.6K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.1K@ 80.7¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesAlex Michelsen$20.1K
BUY VWAP 93.6¢·5 fills
0x09be…9c32Alex Michelsen$19.2K
BUY VWAP 96.9¢·5 fills
ferrariChampions2026Alex Michelsen$11.1K
BUY VWAP 80.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.