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Magic vs. Knicks

● quote 14s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $301.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $157.3KEvent: Magic vs. Knicks

Indicative prices · 14s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

28.5¢
Magic
71.5¢
Knicks
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%
24h sample:26 trades$62.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 33 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKnicks$31.5K@ 72¢·bbb17367162806

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$106
6h
−$17.9K
tracked
$62.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 33 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic".

•If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:00PM ET: If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
monkeymashingkeyboard2 linked markets · $76.5K gross
quavoo5 linked markets · $3.2K gross
Forecastication22 linked markets · $2.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Knicks@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Magic; negative values favor Knicks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMagic · $106
6hKnicks · $17.9K
24hKnicks · $21.0K

Magic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Magic price. Knicks fills are converted to the complementary Magic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.5¢
VWAP 24h27.84¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d27.84¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Magic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$62.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKnicks$31.5K@ 72.0¢
bbb173671628060x0c78…77f1
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5
50.5¢$119.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
49.5¢$32.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 246.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Knicks (-25.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bbb17367162806Knicks$31.5K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill
monkeymashingkeyboardMagic$20.7K
BUY VWAP 27.92¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.