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Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $349.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $137.3KEvent: Magic vs. Knicks

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

49.5¢
Knicks
50.5¢
Magic
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection89Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$59.2K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 68%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Magic · $27.5K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$28.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagic$25.0K@ 51¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Magic pressure: $52.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$52.6K
6h
−$51.7K
tracked
$59.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Magic · $27.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Magic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Knicks" if the Knicks win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Magic".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Knicks" if the Knicks win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
monkeymashingkeyboard2 linked markets · $76.5K gross
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $32.8K gross
quavoo5 linked markets · $3.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Magic@ 51.0¢3m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Magic@ 51.0¢21m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Knicks; negative values favor Magic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMagic · $52.6K
6hMagic · $51.7K
24hMagic · $46.6K

Knicks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Knicks price. Magic fills are converted to the complementary Knicks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h49.11¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d49.11¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Knicks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$6.3K
45¢
← now
$52.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMagic$25.0K@ 51.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYMagic$24.6K@ 51.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—34 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Magic vs. Knicks
28.5¢$158.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5
50.5¢$119.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-10.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Elaran1993Magic$27.7K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111Magic$25.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.