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Guangzhou 2: Yaroslav Demin vs Akira Santillan

● quote 13 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $119.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $72.8KEvent: Guangzhou 2: Yaroslav Demin vs Akira Santillan
4.0¢
Yaroslav Demin
99.9¢
Akira Santillan
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$32.8K trackedsource coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Yaroslav Demin · $1.7K net·9 wallets·$11.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAkira Santillan$8.2K@ 100¢·0x6982…a165

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$34
6h
+$438
tracked
$32.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Yaroslav Demin · $1.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 13 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 07:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yaroslav Demin and Akira Santillan in the Guangzhou 2, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yaroslav Demin' if Yaroslav Demin advances against Akira Santillan. This market will resolve to 'Akira Santillan' if Akira Santillan advances against Yaroslav Demin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Yaroslav Demin DOWN 13.5pp · near-book depth $6.7K → $30 · 56s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Yaroslav Demin; negative values favor Akira Santillan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAkira Santillan · $34
6hYaroslav Demin · $438
24hYaroslav Demin · $388

Yaroslav Demin price VWAP

Volume-weighted Yaroslav Demin price. Akira Santillan fills are converted to the complementary Yaroslav Demin probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.0¢
VWAP 24h14.1¢▼ below by 10.1pp
VWAP 7d14.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Yaroslav Demin price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$43
70¢
$3.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$140
45¢
$1.8K
40¢
$1.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1
15¢
$1.8K
10¢
$48
5¢
$886
0¢
← now
$23.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.