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Set 2 Winner: James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi

● quote 1439 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $897Event: Almaty Open: James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi
46.5¢
James Duckworth
53.5¢
Luciano Darderi
9.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution7Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%
24h sample:4 trades$81 trackedsource coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 67 min agoofficial metadata 36 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$74
tracked
$81

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
9.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 1439 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 67 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 36 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 9.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “James Duckworth” if James Duckworth wins set 2. It will resolve to “Luciano Darderi” if Luciano Darderi wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between James Duckworth and Luciano Darderi in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “James Duckworth” if James Duckworth wins set 2. It will resolve to “Luciano Darderi” if Luciano Darderi wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor James Duckworth; negative values favor Luciano Darderi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJames Duckworth · $0
6hLuciano Darderi · $74
24hLuciano Darderi · $74

James Duckworth price VWAP

Volume-weighted James Duckworth price. Luciano Darderi fills are converted to the complementary James Duckworth probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h51.4¢▼ below by 4.9pp
VWAP 7d51.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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James Duckworth price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2
55¢
$0
50¢
$75
45¢
← now
$3
40¢
$0
35¢
$2
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.