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Cali: Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia

● quote 13 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $127.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $207.1KEvent: Cali: Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia
99.9¢
Miguel Tobon
0.8¢
Nicolas Mejia
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly52Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets86Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:129 trades$64.0K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 38 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nicolas Mejia · $4.6K net·10 wallets·$5.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNicolas Mejia$7.3K@ 82¢·UpTheBlues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$575
6h
−$25.3K
tracked
$64.0K

10 verified profitable wallets: Nicolas Mejia · $4.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 13 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 38 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Miguel Tobon and Nicolas Mejia in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Tobon' if Miguel Tobon advances against Nicolas Mejia. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Mejia' if Nicolas Mejia advances against Miguel Tobon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Miguel Tobon UP 10.0pp · near-book depth $21.3K → $3.4K · 35s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Miguel Tobon; negative values favor Nicolas Mejia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNicolas Mejia · $575
6hNicolas Mejia · $25.3K
24hNicolas Mejia · $27.4K

Miguel Tobon price VWAP

Volume-weighted Miguel Tobon price. Nicolas Mejia fills are converted to the complementary Miguel Tobon probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h35.2¢▲ above by 64.7pp
VWAP 7d35.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Miguel Tobon price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$457
90¢
$0
85¢
$265
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$964
65¢
$197
60¢
$80
55¢
$211
50¢
$3.7K
45¢
$19.7K
40¢
$4.9K
35¢
$2.5K
30¢
$880
25¢
$9.9K
20¢
$1.3K
15¢
$18.5K
10¢
$433
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesNicolas Mejia$18.0K
BUY VWAP 77.5¢·11 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.