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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Politics→ElectionsSettlement: NOLiquidity: $4.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $34.5MEvent: Brazil Presidential Election
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$370.5K@ 100¢·Abkhauae

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
Outcome meaning

•This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 14d ago
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 14d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY NO@ 100.0¢14d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY NO14d ago
Outcome checks pending
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY NO@ 98.4¢14d ago
15m STALLED +1.4pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 98.5¢14d ago
15m STALLED +1.3pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $254.3K
6hNO · $1.9M
24hNO · $1.1M

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h26.59¢▼ below by 26.6pp
VWAP 7d36.59¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$723.1K
80¢
$1.6M
75¢
$3.6M
70¢
$94.5K
65¢
$512.2K
60¢
$249.4K
55¢
$137.6K
50¢
$52.2K
45¢
$8.0K
40¢
$213.0K
35¢
$429.9K
30¢
$580.0K
25¢
$361.4K
20¢
$562.2K
15¢
$453.6K
10¢
$1.1M
5¢
$1.1M
0¢
← now
$2.8M

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$20.0K@ 99.9¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 99.9¢
Torthic0x8747…71ab
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$30.0K@ 99.9¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$34.8K@ 99.9¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$20.0K@ 99.9¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$20.0K@ 99.9¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$12.1K@ 99.9¢
Reverse-Robin-Hood0x6abf…7d08
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$11.7K@ 99.9¢
GrokEnjoyer0x92e5…efee
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$20.0K@ 99.9¢
BiDiFakePolls0xd24b…ef76
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$44.4K@ 99.9¢
davisb120xdf17…97d1
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$194.3K@ 99.9¢
Contestable-Parfait0xc301…66aa
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$16.0K@ 99.9¢
HenriqueAmerica.0xdd2c…8357
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$14.9K@ 99.9¢
Jmeryn0x6606…c102
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$12.3K@ 99.9¢
pieped0xf440…b009
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$11.5K@ 99.9¢
WW3-Monitor0xe234…304a
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$18.9K@ 99.9¢
HornyBibi0x708d…ea78
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$27.0K@ 99.9¢
cocodomato0xe872…0ab1
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$35.0K@ 99.9¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$72.6K@ 99.9¢
0330330330xd1c7…1d2b
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$370.5K@ 99.81¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$37.2K@ 99.9¢
debased0x24c8…23e1
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$37.2K@ 99.9¢
debased0x24c8…23e1
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$45.5K@ 99.8¢0x6f9c…b471🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$79.9K@ 99.9¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$16.4K@ 99.9¢
FlyingPlaty0x1295…5cfd
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$15.0K@ 99.9¢0x2fad…9d04🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$22.2K@ 99.9¢
Car0x7c3d…5c6b
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$10.5K@ 99.9¢
PetrGrepl0xe759…e7ca
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$22.2K@ 99.9¢
Car0x7c3d…5c6b
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$15.8K@ 99.8¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$49.9K@ 99.8¢
WW3-Monitor0xe234…304a
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$37.7K@ 99.7¢
rdba0xc4d1…8ce8
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$204.2K@ 99.7¢
rdba0xc4d1…8ce8
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$31.4K@ 99.7¢
Snow-White0xa81e…03dc
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$21.9K@ 99.1¢
debased0x24c8…23e1
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$55.1K@ 99.1¢
FlyingPlaty0x1295…5cfd
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$33.0K@ 99.1¢
debased0x24c8…23e1
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$29.7K@ 99.1¢
Bertapotamous0x134a…9e42
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$98.5K@ 98.46¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$81.8K@ 98.4¢
CoffeeDespiser0x629c…6c01
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$19.6K@ 98.0¢
Bertapotamous0x134a…9e42
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$92.1K@ 97.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$14.3K@ 97.0¢
Unfinished-July0x3666…aab6
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$95.6K@ 96.8¢0x2c33…0563🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$93.8K@ 96.2¢0x2c33…0563🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$17.5K@ 96.0¢
SharkVision0xdb42…0ad9
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$75.6K@ 94.98¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$47.1K@ 94.3¢
Bertapotamous0x134a…9e42
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$44.8K@ 93.8¢
scout0x2d99…4ca3
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$10.3K@ 94.0¢
Contestable-Parfait0xc301…66aa
🐋—14 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.