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Spread: Jazz (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $46.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $94.0KEvent: Pelicans vs. Jazz

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

62.0¢
Jazz
38.0¢
Pelicans
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets72Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution41Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:39 trades$37.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pelicans · $18.9K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$26.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPelicans$12.3K@ 56¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Pelicans pressure: $12.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.3K
6h
−$11.0K
tracked
$37.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: Pelicans · $18.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pelicans or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 01:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Jazz" if the Jazz win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Jazz" if the Jazz win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay2 linked markets · $279.7K gross
chanello3 linked markets · $69.3K gross
mooseborzoii5 linked markets · $52.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Pelicans DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $213 → $1.4K · 89s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jazz; negative values favor Pelicans. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPelicans · $12.3K
6hPelicans · $11.0K
24hPelicans · $12.9K

Jazz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jazz price. Pelicans fills are converted to the complementary Jazz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.0¢
VWAP 24h45.15¢▲ above by 16.8pp
VWAP 7d45.16¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jazz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$38
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$14.1K
40¢
$21.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPelicans$12.3K@ 56.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Pelicans$12.3K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.