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Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $218.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $155.4KEvent: Trail Blazers vs. Kings

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

47.5¢
Trail Blazers
52.5¢
Kings
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$74.7K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kings · $8.2K net·4 wallets(2🐋)·$38.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKings$11.3K@ 53¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Trail Blazers pressure: $14.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.0K
6h
+$9.2K
tracked
$74.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: Kings · $8.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 53

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Trail Blazers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Trail Blazers" if the Trail Blazers win the game by 11 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Trail Blazers" if the Trail Blazers win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo6 linked markets · $41.6K gross
HomeRunHazard8 linked markets · $29.6K gross
ferrariChampions20263 linked markets · $13.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Trail Blazers; negative values favor Kings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTrail Blazers · $14.0K
6hTrail Blazers · $9.2K
24hTrail Blazers · $9.2K

Trail Blazers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Trail Blazers price. Kings fills are converted to the complementary Trail Blazers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h48.51¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d48.51¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Trail Blazers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$24
45¢
← now
$74.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTrail Blazers$10.7K@ 48.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYKings$10.2K@ 51.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKings$11.3K@ 52.98¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)
52.5¢$377.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Kings
80.5¢$328.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)
55.0¢$78.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 233.5
47.5¢$78.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)
59.5¢$70.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 232.5
50.5¢$21.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)
63.0¢$11.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
20.0¢$9.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

maz26Kings$12.1K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
ArielFilipinoKings$11.3K
BUY VWAP 52.98¢·1 fill
maz26Trail Blazers$10.7K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.