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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner

● quote 4 min ago
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $410.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $924.0KEvent: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B

Polymarket indicative prices · 8 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Team Spirit
0.05¢
Astra Invicta
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 21 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:259 trades$280.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Spirit · $16.9K net·21 wallets(1🐋)·$48.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Spirit$18.7K@ 78¢·Sunshine.Smile

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Astra Invicta pressure: $13.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$13.2K
6h
+$14.6K
tracked
$280.6K

21 verified profitable wallets: Team Spirit · $16.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 28.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Astra Invicta or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 21:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 2 against Astra Invicta.

•This market will resolve to "Astra Invicta" if Astra Invicta win Game 2 against Team Spirit.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Spirit and Astra Invicta in the PARI Universe Group B, initially scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 2 against Astra Invicta. This market will resolve to "Astra Invicta" if Astra Invicta win Game 2 against Team Spirit. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $49.0K gross
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $32.0K gross
GEAEW3 linked markets · $26.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Astra Invicta@ 72.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -37.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 75.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 72.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -35.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Team Spirit UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $1.3K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Spirit; negative values favor Astra Invicta. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAstra Invicta · $13.2K
6hTeam Spirit · $14.6K
24hTeam Spirit · $14.6K

Team Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Spirit price. Astra Invicta fills are converted to the complementary Team Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h72.47¢▲ above by 27.5pp
VWAP 7d72.47¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$51.9K
90¢
$5.3K
85¢
$1.0K
80¢
$4.0K
75¢
$70.6K
70¢
$41.0K
65¢
$32.1K
60¢
$19.2K
55¢
$16.0K
50¢
$17.9K
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$5.3K
35¢
$3.8K
30¢
$3.9K
25¢
$1.7K
20¢
$5.8K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Spirit$10.4K@ 99.9¢
DotG0xcd36…0f01
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYTeam Spirit$10.4K@ 75.0¢0xf201…527e🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit$18.7K@ 78.03¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf201…527eTeam Spirit$22.3K
BUY VWAP 73.94¢·3 fills
Sunshine.SmileTeam Spirit$18.7K
BUY VWAP 78.03¢·1 fill
0xe16d…5e30Team Spirit$12.0K
BUY VWAP 64.82¢·6 fills
DotGTeam Spirit$10.4K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.