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Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 13 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $96.8KEvent: Wizards vs. Bulls

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

57.0¢
Bulls
43.0¢
Wizards
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly19Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution35Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$40.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 29s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bulls · $20.7K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$39.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBulls$14.1K@ 47¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$231
6h
+$20.8K
tracked
$40.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: Bulls · $20.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bulls" if the Bulls win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Wizards".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bulls" if the Bulls win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay2 linked markets · $944.0K gross
maz262 linked markets · $97.6K gross
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $49.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bulls@ 48.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: Bulls UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $2.3K · 56s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bulls; negative values favor Wizards. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWizards · $231
6hBulls · $20.8K
24hBulls · $20.8K

Bulls price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bulls price. Wizards fills are converted to the complementary Bulls probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.0¢
VWAP 24h46.61¢▲ above by 10.4pp
VWAP 7d46.61¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bulls price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$133
45¢
$39.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBulls$14.1K@ 47.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Bulls$22.0K
BUY VWAP 46.63¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.