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Seoul: Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang

● quote 14 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $590.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $276.5KEvent: Seoul: Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang

Indicative prices · 14 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

1.0¢
Marin Cilic
99.9¢
Zhizhen Zhang
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly84Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:178 trades$75.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marin Cilic · $18.9K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$33.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarin Cilic$19.1K@ 62¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$329
6h
+$7.1K
tracked
$75.4K

9 verified profitable wallets: Marin Cilic · $18.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +54.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 14 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 54.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Zhizhen Zhang in the Seoul, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Zhizhen Zhang. This market will resolve to 'Zhizhen Zhang' if Zhizhen Zhang advances against Marin Cilic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Zhizhen Zhang47m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Zhizhen Zhang@ 46.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Marin Cilic2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Marin Cilic@ 61.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -28.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
Latest book event: Marin Cilic DOWN 16.5pp · near-book depth $144 → $1.3K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marin Cilic; negative values favor Zhizhen Zhang. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarin Cilic · $329
6hMarin Cilic · $7.1K
24hMarin Cilic · $7.1K

Marin Cilic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marin Cilic price. Zhizhen Zhang fills are converted to the complementary Marin Cilic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h54.87¢▼ below by 53.9pp
VWAP 7d54.87¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marin Cilic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$8.3K
60¢
$37.0K
55¢
$8.0K
50¢
$2.1K
45¢
$7.7K
40¢
$1.6K
35¢
$4
30¢
$9.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$2
5¢
$1.4K
0¢
← now
$24

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMarin Cilic$19.1K@ 61.6¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WoaifacaiMarin Cilic$24.9K
BUY VWAP 61.66¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesZhizhen Zhang$22.8K
BUY VWAP 51.28¢·32 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.