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1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5

● quote 86 min ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $82.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.1KEvent: 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV Darmstadt 98 - More Markets

Indicative prices · 86 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Over
0.1¢
Under
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution27Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:37 trades$32.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 147 min agoofficial metadata 86 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $2.8K net·4 wallets·$4.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLOver$16.9K@ 100¢·dartanyan150

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$22.8K
tracked
$32.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: Over · $2.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 86 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 147 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 86 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98, scheduled for November 7 at 7:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x8191…da722 linked markets · $3.8K gross
MadridTime2 linked markets · $3.3K gross
Flaznorp4 linked markets · $2.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Over UP 61.0pp · near-book depth $5.4K → $71 · 11s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $22.8K
24hUnder · $22.8K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h89.23¢▲ above by 10.7pp
VWAP 7d89.23¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$34
75¢
$2.0K
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$3
60¢
$19
55¢
$655
50¢
$4.5K
45¢
$47
40¢
$0
35¢
$24
30¢
$92
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLOver$16.9K@ 99.9¢
dartanyan1500xcb98…b473
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.