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Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

● quote 53 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $229.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $541.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · 53 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
TheMongolz
2.5¢
Legacy
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets38Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:166 trades$218.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 54 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Legacy · $1.8K net·10 wallets·$4.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTheMongolz$24.6K@ 44¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$144
6h
+$5.4K
tracked
$218.9K

10 verified profitable wallets: Legacy · $1.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 53 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 54 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Legacy.

•This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against TheMongolz.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between TheMongolz and Legacy in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Legacy. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
cruzNBA2 linked markets · $61.4K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $49.9K gross
redvinny2 linked markets · $33.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY TheMongolz@ 45.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +39.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY TheMongolz@ 45.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Legacy DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $793 · 31s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor TheMongolz; negative values favor Legacy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLegacy · $144
6hTheMongolz · $5.4K
24hTheMongolz · $23.2K

TheMongolz price VWAP

Volume-weighted TheMongolz price. Legacy fills are converted to the complementary TheMongolz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h59.9¢▲ above by 40.0pp
VWAP 7d59.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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TheMongolz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$42.0K
90¢
$8.2K
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$5.4K
75¢
$1.9K
70¢
$8.7K
65¢
$2.6K
60¢
$4.6K
55¢
$120
50¢
$4.2K
45¢
$26.9K
40¢
$106.6K
35¢
$5.1K
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTheMongolz$13.3K@ 44.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLegacy$14.0K@ 56.0¢
Gooooooollllllllll0xda3a…381f
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYTheMongolz$19.8K@ 45.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYTheMongolz$24.6K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYLegacy$10.7K@ 56.0¢
norrisfan0xe72b…b0a0
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CORGI8TheMongolz$33.1K
BUY VWAP 44.59¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111TheMongolz$24.6K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
GooooooollllllllllLegacy$14.0K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
norrisfanLegacy$10.7K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.